Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Bears/Lions - Game 8

Time to start thinking about the Draft in April. The Bears find new and remarkable ways to lose, again to the Lions, 16-7.

I shared with a co-worker that the problem that the Bears have this year is noticeable, if hard to describe. Last year, you almost never saw confusion on offense, defense, or special teams. Guys believed in the system, took care of their responsibilities, and mistakes didn't happen - well, that's not exactly right, but certainly not as much as this year.

This year, confusion is King. It's everywhere, in all aspects of the game. This is an indictment of the coaching staff, primarily. Yes, there are new faces, some of whom I hope aren't around next year. Yes, players aren't making plays - the running game is pathetic, and the once-proud defense has entire games where it seems like they've forgotten how to tackle (yet, that's coaching too, isn't it?).

And the news about Urlacher is not good. It might have been Haugh in the Tribune who suggested the Bears invest in Briggs if Brian has a chronic problem. Never thought I'd hear that - or agree with it - even three months ago, but there it is.

We're in for a long second half.

Friday, October 26, 2007

This is it

I am not one for hyperbole & exaggeration, but I firmly believe that thus week's showdown against Detroit is the key game for our season. If we win, we have our first winning streak of the season, we even up our divisions record, we go into the bye with some momentum before coming out for a very winnable game at Oakland, and the ship will be moving in the right direction as we get our DTs healthier and Nate Vasher out on the field.

If we lose, we're 1-3 in our division, 3-5 heading into the bye and NEEDING 6-7 wins in our final 8 games to even have a chance at the playoffs.

That said, I am feeling good about our chances. Look at the last time we played Detroit:

-Most of our defense was out. This time Tillman is back, Briggs is back, our whole D-line & linebacking corps should be ready to go, Danieal Manning & Trumaine McBride seem to have found their bearings and are playing competent football.

-Kitna is still a statue, their o-line still stinks, and our d-line will have all its horses back. We should sack him, force him into bad throws, and cause at least 1 fumble.

-They aren't gonna get all the lucky breaks they got last time. Our defense was beaten half to death...Griese handed them a touchdown on his 1 interception...Griese threw 2 picks when we were in the red zone (which, at minimum, cost us 6 points)....they returned an onside kick for a TD...etc.

-They are a historically bad road team. In particular, running the Mike Martz offense on grass, they aren't gonna put up the big numbers like they're used to.

-Griese has found his groove and feeling comfortable playing in this offense. His play will be much improved comapred to that last game.

-In spite of all these crazy things, they beats us by 10 in their place, with 7 of thsoe coming on an onside kick return TD. The fact is we outplayed them most of that game, and every break went their way.

That won't happen again. We are healthy, we are at home, and this team knows it needs a win for survival. We've also improved since that last game. The crowd is gonna be intense (I'll be there contributing to that) and if the Bears can get points on the board early and force this team into passing 75% fo the time, we'll get some sacks & turnovers & could have a big win. I realize that is a best case scenario, and I think Detroit will keep it fairly close, but ultimately the Bears will win this game 31-20.

Monday, October 22, 2007

Bears/Eagles - Week 7

Some thoughts on the game...

Brian Griese drove this offense 97 yards in under 2 minutes with no timeouts for a game winning touchdown. This was the single most impressive drive I have ever seen from a Bears offense/quarterback.

While it is true the Bears stayed alive by winning this game, they absolutely MUST win next week at home against Detroit, and the game at Oakland following the bye, to have any chance at the playoffs. These are both very winnable games against flawed teams, and the Bears must take advantage of these 2 opportunities if they want to have a chance at making the playoffs.

The running game needs to improve in a hurry. In 7 games only once (W against the Chiefs) has our running game truly had a good game. As the weather cools, and defenses wear down from fatigue an injury, Turner/Benson/the line need to find a way to get AT LEAST 100 yards, preferably 120, per game. At some point we are going to need the running game to win, and while I think it's a little better now than it was early on, they need to start making big progress soon.

The D played well overall, although as usual they surrendered a score late. Don't get me wrong, holding an offense featuring Brian Westbrook, Donovan McNabb, a very good o-line, and Andy Reid's play-calling, to 16 points on the road in a tough stadium is impressive, but it would be nice to see them put a complete game together, get a couple turnovers, and hold a team to single digit points (hasn't happened yet this year).

It was nice to see them contain Westbrook. I do think Adrian Peterson's (of MN) game against us was more a fluke than anything else, but it was good to see them buckle down.

Hopefully they continue to round into form. Getting Darwin Waker & Nathan Vasher back will both be helpful, and hopefully the other guys will clean up their games so this D will be ready to climb into the top 10 in the 2nd half of the season.

I think guys like Adrian Peterson & Rashied Davis need to be confident in their kick return abilities. I have no problem with opposing kickers doing what Akers did yesterday, but our upbacks need to be able to turn those short kicks into AT WORST the 35 yard line for starting field position.

The main thing I took from this game is that our team showed character, backbone, and resolve, and this should be a confidence boost for them. They do need to be sure it isn't too much of a confidence boost & get overconfident (like they did after GB, only to be embarassed by MN the following week). I don't think that will happen this time. The defense seems to have gotten its attitude back, and if they can get healthy and get a few more sacks and/or turnovers against Detroit, I think they can get their swagger back & start playing like they did in 2006.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Bears/Queens - Game 6

Trouble, baby.

I'm glad I waited a while before posting this, as I think I have some decent perspective now.

The Bears played like crap for nearly 4 quarters. They turned the ball over 4 times - unacceptable for a veteran team coached by a guy who preaches turnovers and ball control. They were utterly gashed by the Vikes on the ground - again, unacceptable for a team that played in the Super Bowl last year (guess who watched tape of the first Green Bay drive from the week before?). Dear Bears: Fix the turnover problem. Fix the run defense.

But, there was some good. Devin Hester, you are out of your mind. On the Fox postgame show Jimmy nailed it right, on, the, head. He said that the most valuable guy on a football team is the talent evaluator. Talent wins football games. There's no coaching that can turn Bobby Wade into Devin Hester. There's no coaching that can turn - sorry Bears fans - Cedric Benson into Adrian Peterson (the Vikes, not ours).

But he can be good, if not great. The problems can be fixed. Another free bit of advice for the Bears? Tell Benson that he's got two, maybe three games. He's going to get all the carries, every down, every series. He either stands up like a man and lives up to his "special" tag or he's gone. Enough of this third down BS and enough coddling what should be a professional doing his J-O-B.

P.S. Hey, Turner? Run that go route to Hester, like, five times a game.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Good Article

Check out this article by Dan Pompei, who says the Bears are only going to get better from here on out.

Best line: "So what we're left with is a pretty good football team—a team that can be better than the 2006 Bears. Now all they have to do is go out and prove it for 11 games." Every game counts from here on out, and if the Bears can win the division and play most - if not all - of their playoff games at home, they could be back in the big game at the end of the season.

Monday, October 8, 2007

Game 5 - Bears/Packers

The Bears travelled north to the frozen tundra... nah, it was something like 80 degrees at kickoff. Lovie ran his Lambeau record to 4-0 as the Bears beat the Packers 27-20 on Football Night in America.

From the get-go, it looked like a long night in Beardom. But look who was back on the field...

Charles Tillman made his return felt in a big way by forcing two fumbles in the first half. Lest the Green Bay faithful pull a Denny Green "we let them off the hook" rant, it should be noted that on a defense that prides itself on taking away the football, Tillman is widely regarded as the best on the team in that department.

Another big contributor was Lance Briggs, who unofficially had something like 600 tackles. OK, maybe it was 16. Both of these guys missed last game - both were hurt, as a matter of fact two weeks ago vs. Dallas (as was Nathan Vasher, who sat out last night's contest).

The first half ended with the Pack throwing up some huge yardage, and a 17-7 lead. The Bears would come back, capitalizing on Urlacher's pick of Favre and the Bears finding Greg Olsen for the score. More stops and a little more offense, and McGowan gets that last pick, we kneel for the last :01 and that's that.

Good news: we're getting healthy again. Tillman and Briggs were back, hopefully we'll get Vasher in a week or two. The offense showed signs of life. Benson ran the ball hard, if not spectacularly, and held on to it. Our two tight ends showed what we all thought was possible at the beginning of the season. We've moved to 2-3 and beat the Packers.

Bad news: Darwin Walker was injured. We looked bad in the first half, and could have been down 3 scores. Archuleta still seemed like he was out of position on a couple of plays.

Friday, October 5, 2007

Rex in Retrospect

I'm well aware that any sports fans, let alone NFL fans, particularly let alone Bears fans, have been inundated with articles about the Bears quarterback situation over the past year. Ever since Rex Grossman played like Cade McNown against the Arizona Cardinals last season, an endless barrage of complaints and criticisms have been levied at both Rex and the organization which employed him; some of it valid criticism, some unnecessary personal attacks on him, but mostly uneducated over-reaction, unaccompanied by any logic or thoughtful reflection on what's really going on here. I will attempt to provide some of the latter, and avoid the former.

I have always been a fan of Rex Grossman, dating back to 2001 & 2002 when he was a Florida Gator. While I was never a big college football fan (always preferred Sunday football), I went to college with a lot of guys who were, and frankly it's not a bad diversion for slow, Fall Saturday afternoons when you're hanging out in small overcrowded dorm rooms with a bunch of hungover guys killing time before the next party. And during those 2 seasons, when I watched the most college football of my life, he was the best player in the country, period.

What I liked best about him is he was absolutely fearless...he had that John Elway/Brett Favre way of sliding around the pocket, narrowly avoiding the pass rush, and hitting receivers on the money, in-stride 40 yards downfield on off-balance throws. I still remember some of his highlight tapes where he would be moving to his left under pressure, and on a dime just spun around and lasered a ball right into the hands of a fairly well-covered receiver for a 50+ yard touchdown.

I thought he would be just a perfect QB for the Bears, and so did every other Bear fan I knew who followed college football. He had poise, elusiveness, a cannon arm, accuracy, leadership, everything we had been lacking at the QB position...pretty much forever. Ron Wolf, the architect who built those damn good Packer teams of the 1990s, said Grossman was the closest thing to Brett Favre he had ever seen in his years of scouting and evaluating talent.

When Spurrier let Fla. for the Redskins, and Ron Zook took over, the Fla. offense predictably declined, but still remained one of the better offenses in the country. This took Grossman from a Heisman runner-up, potential top 5 pick, to a mid to low first round pick. I was absolutely thrilled when he was still on the board at #23 in the 2003 draft, and seeing the Bears draft him was the happiest I've ever been on draft day. I really believed the position would be set for 12 years, and we'd have an all-pro QB who would keep us competitive year-in and year-out, and give us multiple opportunities to play in a Super Bowl.

So fast forward four and a half years....the Bears are 1-3 coming off a Super Bowl loss, Grossman is on the bench after 3 horrendous games, following a horrendous Super Bowl, following a solid playoff run, following the most up and down season I have ever seen from one quarterback. He had literally the best and worst games I've ever seen a quarterback play, all within the same 4 month period. Which all begs the question...what happened?

I've spent a TON of time thinking about this, and it's a tough pill to swallow. I obsessively love the Bears, so I always want to see all of their players succeed. Throw in the fact that I thought this guy was a can't-miss lock in the draft, and I was thrilled when we picked him, and was fully confident in, & supportive of, him as our QB, that watching him fail this year has been the most disappointed I've ever felt regarding a player on this team.

I really believe the 2 leg injuries he had early on are what eventually doomed him. Coming off the bench at the end of his rookie year in 2003, and through those first couple games in 2004, he looked just like the guy who tore up the SEC in 2001-2002. He could make all the throws, wasn't afraid to move around, and gave his team a chance to score every time he dropped back to pass. He even injured his ACL on a play where he scrambled and dove for a touchdown, on the artificial turf of the Rollerdome.

After a long year of rehab, he came back in 2005, and promptly broke his ankle in the preseason. The Bears kept him around, and he came back on a wobbly ankle to play the last couple regular season games, as well as the playoff game against the Panthers.

I beleive that the combination of coming back & playing while his ankle was still in a recovering stage, and all the pressure of being labeled weak, soft, injury-prone, a bust, Glassman, Wrecks, etc. got to his head, and part of his focus shifted from being a great football player, to staying healthy. Just watch any tape of him prior to his ACL injury, and after his return from the ankle injury (since there really is no tape in between, I exclude this time period), and you will see 2 different quarterbacks. Before, he was fearless in the pocket, not afraid to shift around, take off running, or step up into the pocket & take a big hit, if that's what it took to get the ball into the receiver's hands. After, he never ran, rarely moved laterally or forward in the pocket, and would always backpedal and throw off his back foot when faced with pressure.

And based on watching Rex repeatedly make these seemingly fundamental, correctable mistakes over a year and a half of games, I can't come to any conclusion except that his instincts changed, as a result of his conscious effort to avoid injuries. Necessarily, deteriorating fundamentals and instinctual bad habits lead to turnovers. Anyone with any semblance of a football IQ knows that rushing throws, throwing off your back foot, or while back-pedaling, and throwing it up for grabs to avoid being hit, are all ingredients for interceptions: the problem which has doomed Rex's career as a Bear.

Put simply, his injuries took away his gutsy tendencies, and the lack of those tendencies destroyed his ability to make all the highlight reel plays that made him a star in the first place. When a QB is able to absorb a hit, or evade pressure, or step up in the pocket, he is able to take some risks and be successful. But when a QB is always backing up, and then trying to fit the ball in a tight place...they have no chance.

The key to Rex's early success was always the ability to make a play, regardless of the pressure around him. He was willing & able to do absolutely whatever it took to get himself into position with a good throwing lane. Now, he only succeeds when everything around him is perfect, and that simply isn't good enough. Rarely does a team have a good enough o-line, receiving corps, and running game, where the QB can always drop back, comfortably survey the field, and make a throw to an open receiver...and we all know the Bears are miles from that right now. Rex's physical & psychological inability to do everything necessary to make his own plays, is what cost him his job, and at this point I don't see him, or the Bears offense, making enough of a turn-around in 2007 to where his abilities will again be a good fit for what our offense needs.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Defense

It's been quite a Jekyll & Hyde 4 games for our defense - absolutely dominant in the first 3 quarters of a game, and absolutely terrible in the 4th quarter.

While I think their performance is somewhat lacking, I can't hold them as closely to the fire as I do the offense. I actually think Babich has done a great job calling this defense, he's been much more creative and strategic in his calls than Rivera ever was.

But the combination of injuries, lack of secondary depth, and too much time on the field have led to poor performances late in the games by the defense. While some argue that defense can 'make its own rest' by making stops & getting off the field, it is imperative that the ofense is bale to hold onto the ball, move the ball, and score some points for any defense to have sustainable success. Playing 35-40 minutes in a game DOES wear out even the most well-conditioned defense, and fatigue compounds the possibility of injury for the members of that defense.

I think the D has done a dcent job considering the injuries & the amount of time they have spent on the field, and I am confident that the returns of Briggs, Tillman, Vasher, and Tommie Harris (who only played as a situational rusher against Detroit) will right the D's ship.

It would be easy to go off on Jerry Angelo for trading away Dante Wesley & Chris Harris, both of whom would provide some much needed relief in the secondary right about now, but I still think he made the right football decision. We had a surplus of guys in those positions at the time, we had no indication that guys would get hurt to the extent they have (Mike Brown excluded), and Harris & Wesley were the 2 guys who were not locked up for the long term, and for whom we could get something of value in return. I do think that our DB coach has a very important role throughout the rest of this year and before the 2008 season begins...to develop all these young draft picks into serviceable DBs. Kevin Payne at safety, and McBride & Graham at CB, are going to be our secondary depth/special teams guys for the next 2-3 years by virtue of their draft standing (and possibly potential starter for Payne), so it is imperative that these guys are brought up to speed ASAP so we don't see such a hug drop-off in the event of future injuries to our CBs.

Monday, October 1, 2007

Game 4 - Bears/Lions

Most depressing game in quite some time. I feel worse after this game than I did last week, and even worse than I did after we lost the Super Bowl. Not only did we lose a game, not only did our offense play like it was 2004 and our defense give up an NFL RECORD 34 points in the 4th quarter, but this game exposed serious flaws that will almost certainly doom this team and keep us out of the playof hunt. Quite a wet blanket, coming off a Super Bowl season.

While I thought Griese looked better than Rex has this year, he still made too many mistakes. 2 of his interceptions appeared to be due to being off in the timing of his throws, which can be corrected. Nonetheless, he didn't inspire anyone.

The o-line sucks. They couldn't open any holes for the running game, and they couldn't kleep Griese on his feet. The entire right side of our line stinks. Angelo is gonna need to draft a tackle on the first day this offseason, and better pray that Beekman develops into a starting caliber guard sooner than later.

Ditto for our WRs. Moose Muhammad is a fraud with slow feet and average hands. He is paid like a #1 receiver, performs like a #4. Berrian is IMO a potentially great #2, but he's playing way too inconsistently. Hester is way too much of a project to count on, and Davis simply isn't talented enough to make a consistent impact. Mark Badley is my 1 hope, as he is talented as hell and has performed well in every opporuntity he's been given, but for whatever reason Lovie & Turner refuse to give him any opportunities. At this point I don't care what he did or who he pissed off, we are desperate for production at that position and he is our best chance for that.

And shame on Ron Turner. We have a 'thunder & lightning' potential combo at the TE position in Clark & Olsen...Olsen the lightning fast rookie with upside through the roof, and Clark the tough vet who's coming off a career year and playing at a high level once again. Ditto for the RBs...Benson & Wolfe could be an electrifying combination, but Turner's unimaginative gameplans and insistence on calling the same highschool level plays time after time have damned this offense. The hallmark of a successful offensive coordinator is the ability to make game plans which take advantgae of your talent, and make adjustments when the defense is keyed in on your gameplan. Just look at guys like Ken Whisenant, Charlie Weis, Bill Walsh, Tom Moore, Mike Martz. No matter where they go, who their RB/QB/WR are, they find a way to move the ball and score points.

And it's not like the Bears don't have talented guys. Benson is a horse when he gets 25 touches up the gut, but Turner is throwing him pitches to the outside. Wolfe is a great open field runner, but barely gets the ball. Olsen & Clark could be a nightmare with Olsen stretching the field down the seam and Clark maneuvering underneath, but neither has been used particularly effectively. Berrian is a great downfield threat, but is being used on 12-15 yard 'posession receiver' type routes. And Bradley is the most talented WR on this team hands down, and he's riding the pine.

While I will maintain the Bears o-line is the biggest problem on that side of the ball, Turner has not made any adjustments in his blocking scheme or play calling to open holes for the runners, or creating time in the pocket for our QBs. If this offense doesn't turn around significantly by the bye week (conveniently located in the dead center of our schedule), I think Lovie's got a big decision as to whether Turner is really the guy to lead this offense into the future.

On a final note, while I have admittedly been a huge Jerry Angelo fan, he must also be held accountable. His offensive line is old and withering, and while with Metcalfe & Beekman he has a promising pair of backups, our tackle position is in need of an influx of young talent fast, and we have no one waiting in the wings. Also, the WR position needs a complete overhaul. Berrian is fine - as a #2. Davis is fine - as a #4 or 5. Hester is fine, if you can incorporate him into the offense without gimmicks that opposing defenses can easily stop (ie right now). Bradley should get an opportunity to start, and Moose should be gone. Either a big free agent pick-up or a high draft pick is a must at this position this off-season.

More on the defense tomorrow.